Will the US ever get out of debt?
Under current policy, the United States has about 20 years for corrective action after which no amount of future tax increases or spending cuts could avoid the government defaulting on its debt whether explicitly or implicitly (i.e., debt monetization producing significant inflation).
Eliminating the U.S. government's debt is a Herculean task that could take decades. In addition to obvious steps, such as hiking taxes and slashing spending, the government could take a number of other approaches, some of them unorthodox and even controversial.
If government spending follows its current path, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the debt will soar to 180% of GDP by 2050.
A nation saddled with debt will have less to invest in its own future. Rising debt means fewer economic opportunities for Americans. Rising debt reduces business investment and slows economic growth. It also increases expectations of higher rates of inflation and erosion of confidence in the U.S. dollar.
By January of 1835, for the first and only time, all of the government's interest-bearing debt was paid off. Congress distributed the surplus to the states (many of which were heavily in debt). The Jackson administration ended with the country almost completely out of debt!
At the top is Japan, whose national debt has remained above 100% of its GDP for two decades, reaching 255% in 2023.
US Treasurys Owned by China, in USD Billions
As of Oct. 2022, China owns $769.6 billion of the total $7,565 billion U.S. national debt.
Tax cuts, stimulus programs, increased government spending, and decreased tax revenue caused by widespread unemployment generally account for sharp rises in the national debt.
US debt will become unsustainable in roughly 20 years if it doesn't change course, a Penn Wharton Budget Model determined. After that, no amount of tax hikes or spending cuts could prevent default "whether explicitly or implicitly."
We estimate that the U.S. debt held by the public cannot exceed about 200 percent of GDP even under today's generally favorable market conditions.
Who does us owe money to?
The US government owes money to governments, central banks, companies, and individual investors around the world. As reported by the US Department of the Treasury, the US owes a total of $7.4 trillion in Treasury securities to foreign countries.
Country Name | Value of Holdings (Billions of $) |
---|---|
Belgium | 120.4 |
India | 118.2 |
Saudi Arabia | 102.8 |
Singapore | 102.2 |
Higher interest costs
The federal funds rate will have to be increased in the near future to make up for inflation. This means that the federal deficit will grow exponentially, and reducing it will become increasingly difficult.
On January 8, 1835, President Andrew Jackson achieves his goal of entirely paying off the United States' national debt. It was the only time in U.S. history that the national debt stood at zero, and it precipitated one of the worst financial crises in American history.
In total, other territories hold about $7.4 trillion in U.S. debt. Japan owns the most at $1.1 trillion, followed by China, with $859 billion, and the United Kingdom at $668 billion.
Jerome Kerviel, The Most Indebted Person In The World, Owes $6.3 Billion To Former Employer, Societe Generale. In a hyper-competitive world where everyone strives to be the biggest, boldest and most famous, no one covets Jerome Kerviel record-breaking achievement.
The United States of America
The United States upholds its status as the major global economy and richest country, steadfastly preserving its pinnacle position from 1960 to 2023. Its economy boasts remarkable diversity, propelled by important sectors, including services, manufacturing, finance, and technology.
- Japan. $1,098.2. 14.52%
- China. $769.6. 10.17%
- United Kingdom. $693. 9.16%
- Luxembourg. $345.4. 4.57%
- Cayman Islands. $323.8. 4.28%
Many people believe that much of the U.S. national debt is owed to foreign countries like China and Japan, but the truth is that most of it is owed to Social Security and pension funds right here in the U.S. This means that U.S. citizens own most of the national debt.
U.S. Treasury securities held by Russia monthly 2020-2023
The value of U.S. Treasury securities held by residents of Russia amounted to 33 million U.S. dollars in June 2023, the lowest over the period under consideration.
Can the U.S. keep printing money?
The bottom line
Printing more money is a non-starter because it'd break our economy. “It would take care of the debt but at a price that's far too high to pay,” Snaith says.
Maintaining interest rates at low levels can help stimulate the economy, generate tax revenue, and, ultimately, reduce the national debt. Lower interest rates make it easier for individuals and businesses to borrow money for goods and services, which creates jobs and increases tax revenues.
The PWBM's three policy bundles to stabilize debt and grow the economy are along three themes: (1) raising taxes on high-income households, (2) broad-based changes to Social Security and Medicare, and (3) a mixture of broad-based new tax revenue and discretionary spending cuts.
- 22 % Social Security.
- 14 % National Defense.
- 14 % Health.
- 13 % Net Interest.
- 12 % Medicare.
- 9 % Income Security.
- 4 % Veterans Benefits and Services.
- 3 % Education, Training, Employment, and Social Services.
Bottom line is, no government can print money to get out of a recession or downturn. The deeper reason for this is that money is really a facilitator of exchange between people, a middleman in a trade. If goods could trade with goods directly, without a middleman, we would not need money.
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